|
|
|
|
Simple Risk Assessment
Models for Oahu
by David Duffy and
Stephanie Saephan
The simple avian influenza risk maps
for Oahu (below) were created based on proximity of poultry/pig
farms to wetlands with "risky" water bird species. Two of the “chicken farms” located
downtown are likely to be retail outlets, the others, based on other
information, do appear to have commercial rearing operations. We
drew three-km cordons around them to mark the areas that would be
culled under international response plans, were avian influenza
detected at such a site.
Next we chose mallards, pintails and ruddy turnstones as three bird
species likely to be involved in avian influenza transmission.
Pintails and turnstones migrate from Alaska to Hawaii and thus could
bring the disease to Hawaii. Mallards in Hawaii are introduced and
non-migratory. They tend to be tamer than the migratory species and
are often fed by the public. Mallards could thus be a “bridge”
species from migratory species to humans.
Where both mallards and pintails occurred within the three-km of a
chicken or pig farm, we suggest there is an elevated risk of avian
influenza becoming established. However, our analysis ignores two
major environmental factors. We were not able to find any data on
the distribution and abundance of backyard or feral chickens. Feral
chickens could provide a bridge between waterfowl in wetlands and
human areas while backyard poultry could provide an immediate source
of infection to homeowners throughout Oahu.
We would appreciate further data or corrections if available (dduffy@hawaii.edu
or saephan@hawaii.edu).
|
|
Avian Influenza Risk
Maps (jpeg files) by Bird Species
Warning:
High-resolution files are large (~40 mb each) |
|
Pintails |
Low-resolution |
High-resolution |
|
Mallards |
Low-resolution |
High-resolution |
|
Turnstones |
Low-resolution |
High-resolution |
|
Pintail/Mallard Overlap |
Low-resolution |
High-resolution |
|
Other species in the family Anatidae |
Low-resolution |
High-resolution |
***COPYRIGHT WARNING
Under the Copyright Law of the United States of America and Related Laws
Contained in Title 17 of the United States Code, applicable also to non-U.S.
copyrights based on the Berne Convention, of which the U.S.A. became a
member on March 1, 1989:"No part of any copyrighted material may be
reproduced or transmitted in any form or in any means, electronic or
mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage
and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher."
However, Limitations on exclusive rights, as established by Section 107
(“fair use”) of the Law, indicate that: "the fair use of a copyrighted
work, including such use by reproduction in copies or phone records or
by any other means specified by that section, for purposes such as
criticism, comment, news reporting, teaching (including multiple copies
for classroom use), scholarship, or research, is not an infringement of
copyright." The electronic copies provided here are based on the “fair
use” limitation of the U.S. Copyright Law, and we are not to be held
responsible of those recipients who wrongly choose to use such materials
for purposes other than the “fair use” as described above.*** |
