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Troublesome El Nino unlikely to show up in '96
Climate reprieve eases Isle hurricane worries
By Jan TenBruggencate
Advertiser Staff Writer
The lastest long-term weather forecasts suggest Hawaii won't see a return this year of El Nino, the weather pattern often associated with Hawaii hurricanes and droughts.
Earlier forecasts said the disruptive effects of El Nino could return before the end of this year's hurricane season. But new data has changed that, said James Partain, regional scientist for the National Weather Service's Pacific Region.
"Most of the models were saying we would get normal or even El Nino conditions by the middle of this year," he said. But "all of the models that we've learned to trust the most continue to suggest a non-El Nino summer."
It's impossible to predict accurately what that means for Hawaii's weather. More often than not, an El Nino year means we get more major storms during the hurricane season. Both Hurricae Iwa in 1982 and Hurricane Iniki in 1992 hit Hawaii in El Nino years. Statistically, it's also likely weather will be drier in such years.
El Nino is associated with several climate conditions, one of them involving a continent-sized pool of unusually warm water, traveling west to east, between Hawaii and the equator. In part because of that warm pool, El Nino is sometimes called a warm episode.
Right now, we're in the opposite of El Nino, a "cold episode," often called La Nina.
The cooler-than-normal waters of this condition seem to dampen the likelihood and strength of of major storms.
The National Weather Service's predictions are based on computer models that use various data to predict climate changes. Most of thsose models now suggest that conditions will be normal by the end of the year, or even remain in a cold episode through early 1997.
| year | tropical storms | hurricanes | El Nino year |
| 1978 | 3 | 3 | |
| 1979 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1980 | 1 | 1 | |
| 1981 | 2 | 0 | |
| 1982 | 6 | 4 | yes |
| 1983 | 3 | 1 | yes |
| 1984 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1985 | 2 | 4 | |
| 1986 | 1 | 2 | yes |
| 1987 | 3 | 1 | yes |
| 1988 | 1 | 2 | |
| 1989 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1990 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1991 | 0 | 2 | |
| 1992 | 3 | 3 | yes |
| 1993 | 1 | 2 | yes |
| 1994 | 3 | 5 | yes |
| 1995 | 1 | 0 |
The Honolulu Advertiser, April 23, 1996
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